Validation of a genomic classifier that predicts metastasis following radical prostatectomy in at risk patient population

Purpose: Patients with locally advanced prostate cancer after radical prostatectomy are candidates for secondary therapy. However, this higher risk population is heterogeneous. Many cases do not metastasize even when conservatively managed. Given the limited specificity of pathological features to predict metastasis, newer risk prediction models are needed. We report a validation study of a genomic classifier that predicts metastasis after radical prostatectomy in a high risk population. Method:A case-cohort design was used to sample 1,010 patients after radical prostatectomy at high risk for recurrence who were treated from 2000 to 2006. Patients had preoperative prostate specific antigen greater than 20 ng/ml, Gleason 8 or greater, pT3b or a Mayo Clinic nomogram score of 10 or greater. Patients with metastasis at diagnosis or any prior treatment for prostate cancer were excluded from analysis. A 20% random sampling created a subcohort that included all patients with metastasis. We generated 22-marker genomic classifier scores for 235 patients with available genomic data. ROC and decision curves, competing risk and weighted regression models were used to assess genomic classifier performance.

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Karnes RJ, Bergstralh EJ, Davicioni E, Ghadessi M, Buerki C, Mitra AP, Crisan A, Erho N, Vergara IA, Lam LL, Carlson R, Thompson DJ, Haddad Z, Zimmermann B, Sierocinski T, Triche TJ, Kollmeyer T, Ballman KV, Black PC, Klee GG, Jenkins RB